Both President Obama and former Governor Romney have reasons to be excited about the upcoming election, yet both also have very real concerns for their campaigns, highlighted in recently released numbers.
The latest unemployment numbers say that President Obama is in trouble in November. The latest poll numbers indicate otherwise. That leads to the question: who’s in more trouble with the economic numbers and the polling information turning as it has over recent weeks?
Looking at the economic numbers that have come out over the past few weeks, one could easily conclude that President Obama is in deep trouble coming to “convention season” and the general election campaign.
GDP growth over the last quarter was weak once again. Job growth is higher than expected yet much lower than what is needed. The unemployment rate – once hoped to have stayed capped at 8% after the president’s stimulus package – now sits at 8.3%. For minorities in America, unemployment rates are in the double digits.
Yet, with all of the bad economic numbers, controversies swirling around the “Fast and Furious” debacle and other high-profile issues hammering this administration over the past 4 years, the path is clear for a Republican presidential candidate to overtake President Obama for the White House starting in January 2013.
In polls leading up to former Governor Mitt Romney’s ascension as the Republican nominee, that generic Republican presidential candidate was regularly beating Mr. Obama in the polls.
Yet, that doesn’t seem to be the case now, as evidenced in recent polls coming from several key battleground states. In contrast, surveyed voters seem to trust Mr. Romney over President Obama when it comes to turning around this economy, especially after 4 years of a lagging recovery under the 44th president.
Economic numbers indicate that Romney will have the clear advantage going into the fall. The polls show Obama with a 6-point lead despite those disappointing figures.
With this race as close as it is at this point, the anomalies that continue from trend-breaking and history-making facts and figures in 2012 only illustrate the willingness of the campaigns to push their message in order to shape public opinion…the only way to glean which candidate is in command with his message, persona, and campaign implementation as the true lead dog this fall is to listen intently to how each candidate position matches up directly with the competition.
At this point, both camps have woes that can’t be ignored or overlooked based on the latest numbers this week. For the incumbent president, the ongoing economic disappointments likely prompted President Obama to get serious about particular fringe issues for his base in 2012 – from immigration to education for Black America and gay marriage – only when pushed by ongoing bad polling figures and worse unemployment numbers since the 2010 mid-term losses Democrats endured. For the challenger, the ongoing lag in the polls prompts Governor Romney to pull together a modified strategy that hopes to do more than merely highlight the economic peril of the nation, as that does not seem to be enough to make Americans vote against President Obama and place Mr. Romney into the White House in January. For both, the numbers probably translate into the overall lack of inspiration that more Americans are feeling from either candidate and perhaps the American set of politicians at this juncture.
Catch more of Lenny McAllister’s “President Obama vs. Mitt Romney: Who’s in First? Who’s in Worse?” on Politic365
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